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Fed “Collar”

Julia Coronado and Eric Freedman in the video excerpt below see slowing growth ahead for the U.S. economy, leading to a more cautious and balanced investment outlook ahead.

China Slowdown

In the video below, Bloomberg News’ Simon Kennedy discusses recent developments in China, including the tug-a-war between the government’s efforts to both rein in debt but also stimulate economic growth on the heels of the trade war.

Data on Shutdown is Shut Down

One unique element of the Federal shutdown is that it is preventing us from knowing what the impact of the Federal shutdown is on the economy; important data from the commerce department has not been released due to the furloughing of employees.

Fiscal Policy Stimulus Waning

Jeffrey Viksjo, CFAjeffrey.viksjo@ogorek.com U.S. GDP growth turned higher in 2018 to ~3% but will almost certainly slow in 2019 to 2.5% or below. One reason is the diminishing impact of fiscal policy stimulus, including the tax cut. The chart below shows the...

The Return of Negative Bond Yields

Jeffrey Viksjo, CFAjeffrey.viksjo@ogorek.com Government bond yields in Japan turned negative in the last trading day of the year, marking their lowest level since September 2017 and marking the extremes to which investors are currently avoiding “risky” assets, such as...

U.S. to Face “Growth Scare”?

Jeffrey Viksjo, CFAjeffrey.viksjo@ogorek.com Vanguard’s Global Chief Economist Joe Davis believes the odds are high that the U.S. will avoid a recession next year, but believes investors are already pricing in a possible “growth scare” where growth...

With Deepened Pockets, How Are U.S. Companies Reacting?

Business sentiment is an important metric to watch in gauging the future direction of the U.S. economy. One way to measure sentiment is to analyze companies use of their cash flow, meaning are they reinvesting in their business in pursuit of new growth opportunities,...

Oil’s Sudden Decline May Drag Down Markets

While recent trading has been brutal for stock investors all around, it has been particularly painful for energy investors with crude oil down more than 25% since the start of October. Oil and gas producers have been the biggest drag on the S&P 500, with shares...