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Data on Shutdown is Shut Down

Jeffrey Viksjo, CFAjeffrey.viksjo@ogorek.com One unique element of the Federal shutdown is that it is preventing us from knowing what the impact of the Federal shutdown is on the economy; important data from the commerce department (such as December retail sales...

Fiscal Policy Stimulus Waning

Jeffrey Viksjo, CFAjeffrey.viksjo@ogorek.com U.S. GDP growth turned higher in 2018 to ~3% but will almost certainly slow in 2019 to 2.5% or below. One reason is the diminishing impact of fiscal policy stimulus, including the tax cut. The chart below shows the...

The Return of Negative Bond Yields

Jeffrey Viksjo, CFAjeffrey.viksjo@ogorek.com Government bond yields in Japan turned negative in the last trading day of the year, marking their lowest level since September 2017 and marking the extremes to which investors are currently avoiding “risky” assets, such as...

U.S. to Face “Growth Scare”?

Jeffrey Viksjo, CFAjeffrey.viksjo@ogorek.com Vanguard’s Global Chief Economist Joe Davis believes the odds are high that the U.S. will avoid a recession next year, but believes investors are already pricing in a possible “growth scare” where growth...

With Deepened Pockets, How Are U.S. Companies Reacting?

Business sentiment is an important metric to watch in gauging the future direction of the U.S. economy. One way to measure sentiment is to analyze companies use of their cash flow, meaning are they reinvesting in their business in pursuit of new growth opportunities,...

Oil’s Sudden Decline May Drag Down Markets

While recent trading has been brutal for stock investors all around, it has been particularly painful for energy investors with crude oil down more than 25% since the start of October. Oil and gas producers have been the biggest drag on the S&P 500, with shares...

Look for a Slower Growth Environment in the near Future

Global growth is expected to slow next year according to a recent report by Moody’s, driven in part by an expected deceleration of growth in the U.S. (U.S. Real GDP growth of 2.9% this year is expected to fall to 2.3% next year and 1.5% by 2020). Underpinning this...

How the Markets Can Recover from October

After a brutal October, Canaccord’s Chief Market Strategist Tony Dwyer sees three potential catalysts to return some much needed optimism to the markets: 1) Getting through the midterm elections (which always creates uncertainty), 2) Progress made over trade talks...

Be Wary, U.S. Investors – Even If the Fed Gets Its Way

Investors spend a lot of time worrying about the Fed raising rates too quickly (causing a recession) or not quickly enough (allowing the economy to overheat with runaway inflation). The below article details why investors should worry even if the Fed gets it exactly...