Sharing Our Thoughts and Insights
Optimism is clearly priced into the markets, with U.S. stocks up nearly 17% year-to-date. The question is where do we go from here?
With a frenzy of technology IPOs expected to come to market this year, it’s worth noting that the days of getting in “on the ground floor” are all but over.
Worse than Brexit itself, the uncertainty of Britain’s exit plan may be causing the most damage to its local economy.
Amidst a slowdown in global growth in places such as Europe and China, investors seeking the relative “safety” of U.S. stocks might be disappointed. It all depends on which sector and/or company you invest in.
The WSJ points out that something curious has been happening since the end of 2017: the U.S. economy has added nearly 2.7 million new jobs but the unemployment rate has barely budged, falling from 4.1% to 4.0%. What can explain this phenomena and why does it matter to stock market investors?
Jude Blanchette, Senior Advisor and China Practice Lead, Crumpton Group, makes the case that the “Trade War” with China is just the start of a longer-term global realignment, where super powers will battle for technological innovation amidst security concerns.
As far as recession indicators go, the inversion of the yield curve (when the 2 year treasury rate rises above the 10 year rate) is probably one of the most frequently cited. There’s a good reason for this: it has accurately predicted recessions dating back to before 1980 (minus a few false alarms).
What should investors think of the current economic climate? The below article sums it up as “It’s probably fine, but…”
Julia Coronado and Eric Freedman in the video excerpt below see slowing growth ahead for the U.S. economy, leading to a more cautious and balanced investment outlook ahead.