Will tariffs and a trade war bend the overall trajectory of the U.S. economy? The best place to see the impact may be in several forward looking economic indicators, such as the stock market (performance of global multinationals versus domestic small caps), futures markets for commodities affected by tariffs, and business sentiment indicators.

While the U.S. is largely a domestically-driven economy, with exports totaling just 8% of U.S. GDP (versus 16% and 19% for Europe and China, respectively), uncertain trade policy can cause corporations to delay investment, and some experts believe we are already seeing early signs of an impact to the U.S. economy.

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